New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Trevino hit sacrifice fly to center, LeMahieu scored, Torres to third.8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Calhoun singled to left, Ward scored, Neto to second, Pillar to third.7–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 37–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 7Pillar doubled to left, Rengifo scored, Ward to third.7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 7Soto tripled to right, Trevino scored, Cabrera scored and Volpe scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Volpe walked, LeMahieu scored, Cabrera to second, Trevino to third.4–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 44–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 33–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Cabrera walked, Verdugo scored, Trevino to second, LeMahieu to third.3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 43–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Judge homered to left center (433 feet), Soto scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2O'Hoppe homered to left (406 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML NYY -185 / LAA +155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -166
- LAA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 3.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −3 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +60 Elo | NYY 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–11 | Road vs home | 7–2030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–26 | 31–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 18–21 | 0–13 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 31–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–32–1 | 30–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–5 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.