Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Hoppe homered to center (418 feet).10–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 6Adell homered to left center (435 feet).10–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 5Giménez reached on infield single to shortstop, Arias scored, Rocchio to second.10–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 29–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 19–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 4Fry homered to left (374 feet).9–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 4J. Naylor homered to right center (399 feet).8–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 4Ramírez homered to center (400 feet), Giménez scored.7–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, Manzardo scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3O'Hoppe grounded into fielder's choice to third, Rengifo scored, Ward out at third.4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Ramírez homered to center (419 feet), Giménez scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Rodríguez scored on Sandoval wild pitch, Arias stole second.2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +5 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +18 Elo | CLE 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 6–1630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–18 | 28–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–13 | 0–11 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 28–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–24–2 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–5 LAA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.