Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Manuel MargotBatting3-4
- Bailey OberPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Farmer doubled to left, Buxton scored and Santana scored.4–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–11
- 9Santana singled to right, Miranda scored on fielding error by right fielder Brennan, Santana to second, Buxton safe at third on error.2–11
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–11
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 31–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–11
- 9Buxton singled to right, Castro scored, Miranda to second.1–11
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–11
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 30–11
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 20–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–11
- 7Giménez singled to center, Rocchio scored and Freeman scored.0–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 7Freeman singled to left, Bo Naylor scored and Fry scored, Freeman to second, Rocchio safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Castro.0–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 5Manzardo doubled to left, Brennan scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 5Brennan singled to center, Fry scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Freeman doubled to left, Rocchio scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / CLE +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 3.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −6 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +4 Elo | CLE 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 13–64th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–21 | 28–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–24 | 22–21–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–10 CLE in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.