New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Verdugo doubled to center, Judge scored and Soto scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Stanton homered to left center (427 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 2Volpe doubled to left, Torres scored, Wells to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Cabrera hit sacrifice fly to center, Rizzo scored, Torres to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Jeffers homered to left center (414 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -115 / MIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 44.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +3 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +37 Elo | MIN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.710th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 11–810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–21 | 22–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 12–11 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–22–1 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–4 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.