Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Judge homered to center (473 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 34–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Peña singled to center, Alvarez scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Volpe homered to right (330 feet), Cabrera scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Singleton homered to right (442 feet), Peña scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Alvarez homered to right (395 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML HOU +125 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -133
- HOU +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.9 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +3 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +24 Elo | NYY 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 13–52nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–23 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18–3 | 17–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–11 NYY in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.