Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Alex VerdugoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis GilPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cabbage singled to right, Singleton scored and Caratini scored.3–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Volpe grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rizzo scored, Berti out at second, Trevino to third.1–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–9
- 7Berti singled to right, Stanton scored, Trevino to second, Rizzo to third.1–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 6Judge singled to center, Berti scored.1–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 5Stanton homered to left center (421 feet).1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Volpe homered to right (354 feet), Trevino scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Verdugo singled to center, Soto scored, Judge to second.1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 1Verdugo homered to right center (383 feet), Soto scored and Judge scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Tucker homered to right (399 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML HOU +105 / NYY -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +6 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +13 Elo | NYY 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 11–54th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–21 | 17–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–18–3 | 15–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–9 NYY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 11.