Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bregman walked, Altuve scored, Alvarez to second, Tucker to third.3–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 43–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Altuve reached on bunt single to third, Meyers scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Dubón hit sacrifice fly to right, Diaz scored, Meyers to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 7Peña scored on throwing error by catcher Raleigh, Meyers to second, Diaz to third.3–2
- 7Peña scored on pickoff error by catcher Raleigh, Meyers picked off second, Diaz picked off third.3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Moore homered to left center (365 feet), Raley scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Peña grounded out to second, Alvarez scored, Bregman to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Polanco homered to right center (407 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML SEA -105 / HOU -115
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +15 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +10 Elo | HOU 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 6–1027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–17 | 10–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–22–2 | 10–16–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 2–6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–4 HOU in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.