Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-4
- Austin GomberPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Diaz doubled to left, Peña scored and Bregman scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 8Tucker grounded out to second, Altuve scored, Bregman to second.6–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Bregman singled to center, Caratini scored, Altuve to second.5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Peña homered to left center (416 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Altuve homered to left (438 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Stallings hit sacrifice fly to right, Jones scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Bouchard singled to right, Díaz scored, Jones to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Tucker homered to right center (456 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to center, Altuve scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Fair odds
- HOU -183
- COL +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.2 – 3.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +75 Elo | HOU 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| HOU | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −2.429th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–17 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders | 8–15–3 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–1 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.