Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4
- Justin VerlanderPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (396 feet), Amaya scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Amaya hit into fielder's choice to right, Swanson scored, Madrigal out at second.1–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to left, Altuve scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 56%
- ML HOU -140 / CHC +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 46.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -128
- CHC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 3.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +6 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +23 Elo | CHC 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.08th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 9–31st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–16 | 16–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–14–3 | 11–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.