San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz doubled to left, Doyle scored.9–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–9
- 8Tovar scored, Doyle to second on passed ball by Campusano.9–9
- 8Tovar scored, Doyle to second on passed ball by Campusano.9–9
- 8Doyle singled to left, Stallings scored, Tovar to third.9–8
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 39–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 8Goodman homered to left center (448 feet), Rodgers scored and Bouchard scored.9–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 8Rosario singled to center, Wade scored.9–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Profar homered to right (405 feet), Cronenworth scored.8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 4Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to right, Azocar scored, Bogaerts to third.6–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Bogaerts doubled to left, Rosario scored, Azocar to third.5–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 3Montero homered to left (364 feet), Doyle scored.4–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 3Díaz grounded out to second, Tovar scored, Doyle to third.4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 58%
- ML SD -150 / COL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- SD: Elo 60.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -138
- COL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +71 Elo | SD 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.329th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 4–824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–12 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12–1 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 11–5 COL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.