Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raleigh hit sacrifice fly to center, Crawford scored.10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–2
- 6Raleigh homered to center (425 feet), Rodríguez scored.9–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 6Rodríguez singled to right, Zavala scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 2Crawford scored on Lambert wild pitch.6–2
- 2Crawford scored on Lambert wild pitch.6–2
- 2Crawford tripled to center, Raley scored, Urías scored and Zavala scored.5–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Zavala singled to left, Polanco scored, Urías to second, Raley to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 2Moore hit sacrifice fly to right, France scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Díaz doubled to right, McMahon scored and Tovar scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -120 / COL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- COL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.6 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +8 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +34 Elo | SEA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 6.030th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −2.229th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 3–520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–13 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 6–13–2 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–1 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.