Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Raleigh walked, Haniger scored, France to second, Garver to third.1–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 41–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Haniger singled to left, Clase scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 7Rojas homered to right (362 feet).1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Garver homered to left (393 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Raleigh homered to left (384 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2De La Cruz homered to right center (391 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML CIN +110 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −9 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +16 Elo | SEA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 6–610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 6–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–5 | 6–10–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–3 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.