Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
White Sox- Robbie GrossmanBatting1-3
- Garrett CrochetPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 2Steer doubled to left, Espinal scored, India scored and Maile scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Maile singled to left, Candelario scored and Fairchild scored, Espinal to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML CIN -130 / CHW +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +18 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +27 Elo | CIN 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.7 | Runs scored | 2.330th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −3.030th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 1–528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–7 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–3 | 5–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–2 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.