Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fletcher doubled to right, Benintendi scored and Lee scored, Fletcher out stretching at third.7–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 4Ramírez singled to left, Kwan scored, Giménez to second.5–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Kwan singled to left, Laureano scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 35–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 3Freeman singled to left, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor to second.5–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 1J. Naylor homered to right center (376 feet), Ramírez scored.5–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 1Pillar doubled to left, Lee scored and Vaughn scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Lee singled to right, Sosa scored, Vaughn to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Vaughn singled to right, Moncada scored, Sosa to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Sosa doubled to left, Grossman scored, Moncada to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 69%
- ML CHW +210 / CLE -260
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 64.9%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -224
- CHW +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 5.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +9 | CHW: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +107 Elo | CLE 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 301.6 | Runs scored | 5.76th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 2.11st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.0 | Margin | +3.61st of 30 |
| 29th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | — | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–7–1 | 5–4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 8–6 CLE in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.