Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Yoan MoncadaBatting1-4
- Jared ShusterPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Ramírez homered to right (378 feet), Kwan scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Giménez hit by pitch, J. Naylor scored, Laureano to second, Freeman to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Giménez scored on error, Rocchio safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Shewmake, Rocchio to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 68%
- ML CHW +200 / CLE -245
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.7%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -213
- CHW +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.2 – 4.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | CHW: Tanner Banks: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +68 Elo | CLE 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 301.8 | Runs scored | 5.95th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 2.31st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.9 | Margin | +3.61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–4 | 8–1 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 8–1 |
| Favorite | — | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6–1 | 5–3–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–1 | 5–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 8–5 CLE in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.