Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Robbie GrossmanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Espinal singled to right, Fraley scored and De La Cruz scored.11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–1
- 8Encarnacion-Strand singled to right, India scored and Stephenson scored, Benson to third.9–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 6Espinal hit sacrifice fly to right, Martini scored.7–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 3Grossman doubled to left, Remillard scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Stephenson homered to right (362 feet).6–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 35–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 15–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 3De La Cruz homered to right center (449 feet), Steer scored and Fraley scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Fraley reached on infield single to second, Encarnacion-Strand scored, Steer to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Encarnacion-Strand hit sacrifice fly to right, Benson scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 62%
- ML CIN -180 / CHW +150
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 59.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -161
- CHW +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.0 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −24 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +66 Elo | CIN 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 2.430th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.818th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −2.429th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 8th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–7 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–3 | 4–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 1–2 CHW in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.