Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bo Naylor singled to right, Freeman scored, Laureano to second, Brennan to third.6–7
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 16–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 10J. Naylor doubled to center, Giménez scored.6–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 10Sheets doubled to right, Sosa scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 6Fry hit by pitch, J. Naylor scored, Laureano to second, Brennan to third.5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Kwan homered to right center (395 feet).5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4Bo Naylor homered to center (416 feet), Laureano scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4J. Naylor homered to center (432 feet).5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 3Sheets homered to right (406 feet), Lopez scored and Grossman scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Sheets scored, Benintendi caught stealing second, catcher to second to first.2–0
- 1Sheets scored, Benintendi caught stealing second, catcher to second to first.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Sheets doubled to center, Grossman scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 69%
- ML CHW +205 / CLE -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 62.2%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -218
- CHW +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.9 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +22 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +87 Elo | CLE 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.1 | Runs scored | 5.66th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 2.51st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +3.11st of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–5 | 9–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–7–1 | 6–4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 9–6 CLE in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.