Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Mitch HanigerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Raley tripled to left, Haniger scored.3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7France hit sacrifice fly to left, Polanco scored.3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Haniger doubled to left, Rodríguez scored, Polanco to third.3–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Fraley homered to right (354 feet).3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Clase singled to left, France scored, Raleigh to second.2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 4Fraley doubled to third, Encarnacion-Strand scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Haniger homered to left center (398 feet), Polanco scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Candelario homered to center (415 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Polanco homered to right center (376 feet), Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML CIN +125 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.2 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +7 | CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +37 Elo | SEA 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.0 | Runs scored | 3.128th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 1st of 305–1 | Road vs home | 4–619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–7 | 4–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–4 | 5–9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.