Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Dominic FletcherBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9India hit sacrifice fly to right, Martini scored.11–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–4
- 7Sheets hit sacrifice fly to left, Lopez scored.10–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 310–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 210–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 7Benintendi singled to left, DeJong scored, Grossman to second, Lopez to third.10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–3
- 7Encarnacion-Strand singled to center, India scored and Stephenson scored, Benson to third.10–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–2
- 7Stephenson hit sacrifice fly, Candelario scored, Stephenson to first on fielding error by center fielder Fletcher, Stephenson to second, Martini to third.8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Martini singled to left, Fraley scored, Candelario to third.7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Martini homered to right center (398 feet), Fraley scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Fletcher scored on error, Sosa safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Fraley, Sosa safe at second on error.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Fletcher singled to center, Vaughn scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Candelario reached on infield single to second, Steer scored and Fraley scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Encarnacion-Strand homered to left center (422 feet), Benson scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 58%
- ML CIN -155 / CHW +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 56.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -140
- CHW +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.9 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −10 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +44 Elo | CIN 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 2.130th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −3.130th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 1st of 304–1 | Road vs home | 1–629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–7 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 10–4 | 5–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–2 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.