Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-4
- Hunter GreenePitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Mitch HanigerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Haniger singled to center, Crawford scored, Polanco to second.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Garver walked, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second, Haniger to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 41–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Fairchild grounded out to second, Fraley scored, De La Cruz to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Clase doubled to center, Garver scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML CIN +115 / SEA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +9 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +48 Elo | SEA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 4th of 305–2 | Road vs home | 5–617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 5–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–4 | 6–9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–2 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.