Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4
- Dakota HudsonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Rodríguez singled to center, Rojas scored.7–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Clase singled to right, France scored on fielding error by right fielder Bouchard, Raleigh scored and Garver scored on error, Clase out stretching at home.6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Rodríguez singled to center, Rojas scored, Crawford to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Raleigh singled to right, Rodríguez scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Raleigh homered to left (375 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML SEA -185 / COL +155
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.3 – 4.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +54 Elo | SEA 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −2.229th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 2–423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–12 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11–2 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–0 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.