Colorado Rockies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-3
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Justin TurnerBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Clement scored, Kirk to second.0–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Turner singled to center, Springer scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Turner doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Kiermaier scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Turner singled to right, Springer scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 69%
- ML COL +210 / TOR -260
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 65.3%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -224
- COL +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 5.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +14 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +110 Elo | TOR 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.722nd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.9 | Margin | −1.526th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 3–26th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–8 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 7–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–3 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.