Colorado Rockies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schneider scored on throwing error by catcher Díaz.12–4
- 9Schneider scored on throwing error by catcher Díaz.12–4
- 9Kiner-Falefa homered to left center (399 feet).12–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 212–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–2
- 9McMahon doubled to left, Doyle scored.12–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 311–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 211–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging11–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–2
- 9Cave hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodgers scored.11–2
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking10–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 210–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 7Tovar hit sacrifice fly to left, Toglia scored.10–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 7Doyle doubled to left, Rodgers scored, Toglia to third.9–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 6Tovar homered to left (390 feet).8–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 5Jones homered to right (414 feet).7–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4Bryant doubled to left, McMahon scored and Doyle scored.6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 69%
- ML COL +210 / TOR -260
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.2%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -224
- COL +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +86 Elo | TOR 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.625th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.8 | Runs allowed | 4.920th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −1.323rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 2–14th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–7 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 6–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.