Colorado Rockies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rodgers singled to right, Díaz scored and Jones scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 3Doyle homered to left (420 feet).1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 1Varsho homered to right center (390 feet), Bichette scored, Vogelbach scored and Schneider scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Schneider walked, Springer scored, Vogelbach to second, Bichette to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 40–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 63%
- ML COL +160 / TOR -189
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 5.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Yariel Rodriguez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +65 Elo | TOR 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.624th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.6 | Runs allowed | 5.427th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.9 | Margin | −1.827th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 28th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 2–29th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–7 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 7–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.