Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tovar singled to left, Bouchard scored and Toglia scored, Rodgers to second.6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 8Blackmon grounded out to first, Díaz scored, Toglia to second, Bouchard to third.4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Toglia walked, McMahon scored, Bouchard to second, Díaz to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 43–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 32–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 8Montero hit sacrifice fly to right, Doyle scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 6Schwarber homered to right (411 feet), Rojas scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Realmuto grounded out to first, Turner scored, Harper to second.1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 1Marsh singled to right, Bohm scored.1–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike - Pitch Timer Violation 11–3
- 1Bohm doubled to right, Realmuto scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1Turner homered to left (421 feet).1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (432 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 68%
- ML COL +195 / PHI -240
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.9%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -208
- COL +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −11 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +91 Elo | PHI 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 68.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.625th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 6–611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–10 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 6–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–7 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.