Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bohm walked, Schwarber scored, Realmuto to second, Turner to third.5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 45–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Reynolds singled to center, Davis scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 8Davis doubled to left, Triolo scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Hayes struck out looking, Davis scored, Reynolds to third.3–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Stott reached on infield single to pitcher, Marsh scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Joe singled to left, Taylor scored, Triolo to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Davis walked, McCutchen scored, Triolo to second, Taylor to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 41–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML PIT +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −10 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +64 Elo | PHI 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.821st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–2 | Road vs home | 3–417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–5 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–4 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.