Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Greene doubled to left, Urshela scored.4–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8Vierling reached on infield single to third, Greene scored, Keith to second, Canha to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 6Reynolds homered to left center (412 feet).2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 5Joe doubled to left, McCutchen scored, Tellez to third.2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4McKinstry hit sacrifice fly to center, Vierling scored, Báez to third.2–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Triolo singled to center, Suwinski scored and Tellez scored, Joe to third.1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Bart singled to center, Joe scored and Tellez scored, Triolo to second.1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Joe reached on infield single to third, Suwinski scored, Tellez to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Keith singled to left, Meadows scored, Torkelson thrown out at third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML DET +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +4 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +12 Elo | PIT 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.94th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.86th of 30 |
| 4th of 305–1 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 28 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–6 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.