Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Gio UrshelaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Edward OlivaresBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rogers singled to left, Carpenter scored, Báez to second.5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 9Carpenter singled to left, Meadows scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 9Urshela singled to center, Greene scored and McKinstry scored on throwing error by center fielder Taylor, Urshela to second.3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Olivares homered to left center (407 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Hayes singled to center, Reynolds scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Olivares homered to left center (395 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Torkelson singled to center, Vierling scored, Greene to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML DET +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +6 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +30 Elo | PIT 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 6.03rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.94th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–2 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–7 | 8–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.