Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Edward OlivaresBatting2-4
- Jared JonesPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Triolo singled to right, Olivares scored, Taylor to third.1–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 7Stott homered to right center (402 feet), Castellanos scored.0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 7Marsh homered to left center (392 feet), Realmuto scored.0–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Bohm homered to center (407 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PIT +115 / PHI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +9 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +59 Elo | PHI 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.718th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 306–1 | Road vs home | 2–419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–4 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–3 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.