Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Castellanos singled to center, Merrifield scored, Bohm to second, Turner to third.3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Bohm singled to left, Schwarber scored, Harper to second.3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Cruz homered to left (369 feet), Williams scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Castellanos singled to left, Turner scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Schwarber homered to center (424 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Hayes doubled to center, Reynolds scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML PIT +135 / PHI -159
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -144
- PIT +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −1 | PIT: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–2 | Road vs home | 3–520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–5 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–4 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.