Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Cristian PacheBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Pache singled to right, Stott scored.1–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Toglia homered to right center (389 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Harper singled to right, Turner scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 70%
- ML COL +220 / PHI -270
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.1%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -234
- COL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 5.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +1 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +94 Elo | PHI 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 4–619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–9 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–5 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.