Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCutchen homered to left (378 feet), Hayes scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 29–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 8Triolo scored, Taylor to second on passed ball by Realmuto.7–2
- 8Triolo scored, Taylor to second on passed ball by Realmuto.7–2
- 6Bart homered to left (369 feet).6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Suwinski homered to right center (402 feet), Hayes scored, Tellez scored and McCutchen scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Turner singled to center, Rojas scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4McCutchen stole home, Triolo stole second.1–1
- 4McCutchen stole home, Triolo stole second.1–1
- 3Turner homered to left (408 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML PIT +160 / PHI -189
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -170
- PIT +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +52 Elo | PHI 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Road vs home | 4–515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–5 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–5 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.