Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10McMahon reached on infield single to shortstop, Blackmon scored, Tovar to second.1–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 10Tovar singled to right, Stallings scored, Blackmon to third.1–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 10Crawford singled to right, Polanco scored.1–0
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 63%
- ML SEA -189 / COL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +10 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +60 Elo | SEA 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 63.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −2.429th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–4 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–12 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 6–12–2 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–0 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.