Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clement singled to right, Varsho scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 8Kim singled to center, Azocar scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Bogaerts grounded out to shortstop, Campusano scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Kiner-Falefa scored on Vásquez wild pitch.4–0
- 2Kiner-Falefa scored on Vásquez wild pitch.4–0
- 1Varsho homered to right (381 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Bichette scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML TOR -125 / SD +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 47.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 3.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +11 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +17 Elo | SD 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.010th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–6 | Road vs home | 5–618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–9 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10–1 | 11–10–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 SD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.