New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jose TrevinoBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-3, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Trevino grounded out to third, Torres scored, Verdugo to third.4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 7Cabrera hit sacrifice fly to center, Verdugo scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Trevino grounded out to pitcher, Torres scored, Verdugo to third.2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Bichette singled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored, Springer to second.1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Clement scored on error by second baseman Torres, Kiner-Falefa stole second.1–4
- 6Clement scored on error by second baseman Torres, Kiner-Falefa stole second.1–4
- 4Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Clement scored and Varsho scored, Springer to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Turner hit sacrifice fly to center, Varsho scored, Springer to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Trevino singled to left, Stanton scored, Trevino to second, Torres to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML NYY +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +27 Elo | TOR 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.922nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–3 | Road vs home | 5–23rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–11–1 | 7–9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–8 TOR in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.