New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Oswaldo CabreraBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting2-4
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Freeman grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kwan scored and Giménez scored on throwing error by second baseman Torres, Freeman to second, J. Naylor out at second.3–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Cabrera homered to right (352 feet), Verdugo scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–0
- 2Grisham grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Verdugo scored, Trevino out at second, Cabrera to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / CLE +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 48.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −7 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +8 Elo | CLE 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.84th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 2.82nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +2.91st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 306–1 | Road vs home | 2–14th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–6 | 9–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–9–1 | 7–4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–2 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.