New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Oswaldo CabreraBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Kirk doubled to left, Bichette scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Kirk scored on Gil wild pitch, Kiner-Falefa to second on wild pitch by Gil, Varsho to third on wild pitch by Gil.1–2
- 2Kirk scored on Gil wild pitch, Kiner-Falefa to second on wild pitch by Gil, Varsho to third on wild pitch by Gil.1–2
- 2Kiner-Falefa walked, Biggio scored, Varsho to second, Kirk to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 41–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Cabrera singled to left, Torres scored, Verdugo to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML NYY -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- NYY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −1 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +12 Elo | TOR 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.125th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Road vs home | 4–24th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–10–1 | 7–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–7 TOR in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.