New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Giménez hit sacrifice fly to right, Fry scored.7–8
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 17–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 10Brennan grounded into fielder's choice to second, J. Naylor scored, Fry third.7–7
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 10J. Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bo Naylor scored, Ramírez out at second.7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Rizzo singled to right, Judge scored and Soto scored, Stanton to second.7–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Volpe doubled to right, Cabrera scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 8Florial homered to right (387 feet).4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5J. Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored, Freeman to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Arias homered to center (424 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Trevino homered to center (406 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Ramírez homered to left (378 feet), Arias scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / CLE +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +2 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +4 Elo | CLE 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.212th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +2.03rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–1 | Road vs home | 2–318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–7 | 10–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 6–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–10–1 | 8–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–2 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.