New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cody PoteetPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Naylor homered to right (360 feet).8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Florial homered to right (365 feet).8–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 5Wells hit sacrifice fly to center, Verdugo scored.8–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 5Cabrera doubled to right, Torres scored, Verdugo to third.7–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 4Soto homered to left center (408 feet), Verdugo scored and Volpe scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Volpe singled to center, Torres scored, Verdugo to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Stanton walked, Soto scored, Rizzo to second, Judge to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 42–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Rizzo singled to center, Volpe scored, Judge to second, Soto to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML NYY -110 / CLE -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- NYY -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | NYY: Cody Poteet (no track record yet) · CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +16 Elo | CLE 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.59th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 2.81st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +2.61st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–1 | Road vs home | 2–29th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–7 | 10–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 6–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–10–1 | 7–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–2 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.