Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Justin TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to left (390 feet).5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 2Turner singled to center, Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 2Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Kiermaier scored, Bichette to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Kiermaier singled to center, Jansen scored on error and Biggio scored on fielding error by center fielder Merrill, Kiermaier safe at second on error.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Turner homered to center (404 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML TOR -110 / SD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- SD: Elo 54.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +31 Elo | SD 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.28th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Road vs home | 5–513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–9 | 12–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9–1 | 11–9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 SD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.