San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting1-4
- Austin GomberPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrill singled to left, Wade scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Wade singled to right, Campusano scored, Wade to second.2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4McMahon hit sacrifice fly to left, Blackmon scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Profar singled to left, Azocar scored, Tatis Jr. to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 62%
- ML SD -180 / COL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- SD: Elo 60.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -161
- COL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −4 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +71 Elo | SD 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.625th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.529th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 3–623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–11 | 10–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11–1 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 9–4 COL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.