Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Campusano scored, Bogaerts to second, Wade to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 8Bogaerts walked, Kim scored, Wade to second, Campusano to third.3–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 43–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Schneider grounded out to shortstop, Turner scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Wade reached first base on catcher's interference, Kim to home, Campusano to second, Merrill to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Campusano walked, Profar scored, Merrill to second, Kim to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 42–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Bogaerts homered to left center (387 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Clement homered to left (372 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 51%
- ML TOR -105 / SD -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- SD: Elo 52.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +2 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +18 Elo | SD 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.912th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 5–719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–9 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11–1 | 11–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.