San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Tovar singled to center, Doyle scored, Blackmon to second.4–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 4Montero walked, Blackmon scored, McMahon to second, Tovar to third.4–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 44–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 4Rodgers homered to left center (421 feet), Montero scored, Jones scored and Doyle scored.4–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 3Merrill singled to center, Campusano scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Campusano doubled to center, Kim scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 2Jones singled to left, Díaz scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Profar hit sacrifice fly to center, Tatis Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Cronenworth singled to left, Bogaerts scored, Tatis Jr. to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML SD -150 / COL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- SD: Elo 61.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.1 – 4.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +79 Elo | SD 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 6.030th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.529th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 3–726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–11 | 10–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12–1 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 10–4 COL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.