Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Montero singled to left, Blackmon scored.12–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 312–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 212–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–3
- 9Blackmon singled to center, Doyle scored.12–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul12–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul12–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–2
- 9McCormick reached on infield single to second, Dubón scored, J. Abreu to second.12–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–2
- 9J. Abreu singled to right, Diaz scored, Dubón to third.11–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 310–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 9Dubón doubled to left, Tucker scored, Diaz to third.10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 9Alvarez homered to center (461 feet).9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike - Pitch Timer Violation 19–2
- 8J. Abreu singled to center, Diaz scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 37–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 8Diaz tripled to center, Peña scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 6J. Abreu grounded into double play, second to first, Peña scored, Dubón out at second, Diaz to third.6–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 60%
- Fair odds
- HOU -191
- COL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.0 – 3.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +13 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +70 Elo | HOU 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| HOU | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 6.030th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −2.229th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–17 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders | 8–15–3 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–1 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.