Atlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Polanco singled to left, Rodríguez scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Polanco reached on infield single to first, Zavala scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Olson singled to center, Riley scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Riley tripled to right, Acuña Jr. scored and Albies scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Acuña Jr. singled to left, Arcia scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Ozuna walked, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to second, Riley to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 41–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 63%
- ML ATL -190 / SEA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -170
- SEA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −7 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +21 Elo | ATL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.625th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 8th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 11–78th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–15 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14–3 | 7–21–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–9–1 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–3 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.