Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Riley singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Olson reached on infield single to second, Albies scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 8Albies doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Kwan singled to right, Rocchio scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Tromp singled to left, Kelenic scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Rocchio scored on Elder wild pitch, Giménez stole second.2–0
- 5Rocchio scored on Elder wild pitch, Giménez stole second.2–0
- 5Rocchio scored on Elder wild pitch, Giménez stole second.2–0
- 3Giménez reached on infield single to third, Bo Naylor scored, Kwan to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML CLE +135 / ATL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- ATL -143
- CLE +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.4 – 5.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −5 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +75 Elo | ATL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3011–4 | Road vs home | 10–42nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–7 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 11–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 15–10–2 | 11–11–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 1–7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–3 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.