Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting2-4
- Trevor RogersPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Braves- Adam DuvallBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Duvall homered to left (396 feet), Ozuna scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6d'Arnaud hit sacrifice fly to right, Riley scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Fletcher hit sacrifice fly to center, Duvall scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Harris II doubled to right, Ozuna scored, Duvall to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 69%
- ML MIA +210 / ATL -260
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 64.7%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -224
- MIA +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 5.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +105 Elo | ATL 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 6.11st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.82nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 26th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 7–31st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–17 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10–1 | 11–7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–12 ATL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.