Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Braves- Travis d'ArnaudBatting3-4, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harris II homered to right center (404 feet).3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6d'Arnaud homered to center (433 feet), Olson scored, Ozuna scored and Harris II scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6García doubled to center, Langford scored and Semien scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5d'Arnaud homered to left (440 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2d'Arnaud homered to left (429 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Ozuna singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Riley to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Semien homered to left (409 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 65%
- ML TEX +175 / ATL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.2%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -186
- TEX +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 5.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −3 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +50 Elo | ATL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 6.41st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.73rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 4–24th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–10 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 10–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.