Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vierling scored, Urshela to second on wild pitch by Latz.2–4
- 8Vierling scored on Latz wild pitch, Urshela to second on wild pitch by Latz.2–4
- 8Urshela singled to right, McKinstry scored, Vierling to third.2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Carpenter doubled to left, McKinstry scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Semien singled to center, Duran scored, Taveras to second.2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Duran singled to left, Smith scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3McKinstry singled to right, Greene scored on fielding error by right fielder Carter, McKinstry to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -125 / DET +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 3.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +33 Elo | TEX 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 3–521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 5–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–3 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.