Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 12Greene singled to center, Kelly scored.11–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–5
- 12Wallner homered to right (391 feet), Jeffers scored and Margot scored.11–4
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–4
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 111–4
- 12Jeffers safe at first on fielding error by third baseman McKinstry, Castro scored, Vázquez scored and Martin scored, Jeffers safe at second.8–4
- 12Pitch 12 : Ball In Play8–4
- 12Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 12Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 12Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 12Pitch 8 : Ball 35–4
- 12Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 12Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 12Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 12Martin walked, Buxton scored, Vázquez to second, Castro to third.5–4
- 12Pitch 6 : Ball 45–4
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 12Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 11Keith singled to right, Torkelson scored, Carpenter to second.4–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 11Jeffers singled to left, Santana scored.4–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Jeffers homered to left center (403 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Keith singled to right, Torkelson scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML MIN -135 / DET +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 50.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 3.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | 0 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +6 Elo | MIN 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 16th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 2–29th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–9 DET in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.